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Attività solare del 28 settembre 2017

Il Sole il 28 settembre. SOHO.
Il Sole il 28 settembre. SOHO.
 
 
:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Sep 27 2200 UTC
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
  • Observed Ap 26 Sep 004
  • Estimated Ap 27 Sep 030
  • Predicted Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 032-026-014
 
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
  • Active                              15/20/30
  • Minor storm                     30/35/20
  • Moderate storm               50/25/05
  • Strong-Extreme storm     05/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 28 Sep - 30 Sep
                       Sep 28    Sep 29    Sep 30
00-03UT             6            5               4
03-06UT             5            4               4
06-09UT             4            4               2
09-12UT             4            3               3
12-15UT             4            4               3
15-18UT             4            4               3
18-21UT             4            4               2
21-00UT             4            4               3
 
 
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 405
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 28 0245 UTC
 
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
  • Extension to Serial Number: 404
  • Valid From: 2017 Sep 27 2012 UTC
  • Now Valid Until: 2017 Sep 28 0900 UTC
  • Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
 
 
Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 73
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 28 0537 UTC
 
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
  • Valid From: 2017 Sep 28 0536 UTC
  • Valid To: 2017 Sep 28 0900 UTC
  • Warning Condition: Onset
  • NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 
 
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 110
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 28 0600 UTC
 
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
  • Threshold Reached: 2017 Sep 28 0559 UTC
  • Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
  • Active Warning: Yes
  • NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 
 
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 111
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 28 0805 UTC
 
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
  • Threshold Reached: 2017 Sep 28 0805 UTC
  • Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
  • Active Warning: Yes
  • NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
 
 
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 406
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 28 0822 UTC
 
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
  • Extension to Serial Number: 405
  • Valid From: 2017 Sep 27 2012 UTC
  • Now Valid Until: 2017 Sep 28 1500 UTC
  • Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

 

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
  • Serial Number: 2672
  • Issue Time: 2017 Sep 28 1252 UTC
  • ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
  • Threshold Reached: 2017 Sep 28 1235 UTC
  • Station: GOES13
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

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