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Attività solare del 14 ottobre 2017

Il Sole il 14 ottobre 2017. SOHO.
 
Il Sole il 14 ottobre. SOHO.
 
:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 12 Oct 029
Estimated Ap 13 Oct 045
Predicted Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 035-020-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Active                20/30/25
Minor storm           30/20/15
Moderate storm        40/10/05
Strong-Extreme storm  10/05/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 14 Oct - 16 Oct
             Oct 14    Oct 15    Oct 16
00-03UT        6         4         3
03-06UT        5         4         2
06-09UT        5         4         2
09-12UT        4         3         2
12-15UT        4         3         2
15-18UT        4         3         2
18-21UT        4         4         2
21-00UT        4         3         3

 

:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2017 Oct 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 287 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Oct 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Oct
I.  Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 13/2400Z 
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots.  Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Oct
Nmbr  Location  Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Nmbr Lat    Lo
2681 S14    197

 

 

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
:Issued: 2017 Oct 14 0245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
SGAS Number 287 Issued at 0245Z on 14 Oct 2017
This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Oct
A.  Energetic Events
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None
B.  Proton Events:  None.
C.  Geomagnetic Activity Summary:  The geomagnetic field was at quiet
to severe storm levels.
D.  Stratwarm:  Not Available
E.  Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values)
10 cm 070  SSN 000  Afr/Ap 026/050   X-ray Background <A1.0
Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs)
GT 1 MeV 4.2e+07   GT 10 MeV 1.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-13 satellite synchronous orbit W74 degrees)
Daily Electron Fluence
GT 2 MeV 1.10e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-13 satellite synchronous orbit W74 degrees)
3 Hour K-indices:
Boulder 3 5 2 4 6 5 4 5 Planetary 3 4 2 4 6 7 6 5 
F.  Comments:  None.


Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Serial Number: 409 Issue Time: 2017 Oct 14 0255 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Extension to Serial Number: 408 Valid From: 2017 Oct 13 1446 UTC Now Valid Until: 2017 Oct 14 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

 

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2682
Issue Time: 2017 Oct 14 0502 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2681
Begin Time: 2017 Oct 12 1350 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4987 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

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