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Attività solare del 13 ottobre 2017

Il Sole il 13 ottobre 2017. SOHO.
 
Il Sole il 13 ottobre. SOHO.
 
:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Oct 030
Estimated Ap 12 Oct 034
Predicted Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 035-025-020

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           31/25/20
Moderate storm        25/13/10
Strong-Extreme storm  15/08/05

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Oct - 15 Oct
             Oct 13    Oct 14    Oct 15
00-03UT        5         4         4
03-06UT        4         4         4
06-09UT        4         4         4
09-12UT        4         4         3
12-15UT        3         3         3
15-18UT        5         4         3
18-21UT        5         4         4
21-00UT        5         4         3

 

:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2017 Oct 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 286 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Oct 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Oct
I.  Regions with Sunspots.  Locations Valid at 12/2400Z 
Nmbr Location  Lo  Area  Z   LL   NN Mag Type
None
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots.  Locations Valid at 12/2400Z Oct
Nmbr  Location  Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 13 Oct to 15 Oct
Nmbr Lat    Lo
2681 S14    197

 

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
:Issued: 2017 Oct 13 0245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
SGAS Number 286 Issued at 0245Z on 13 Oct 2017
This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Oct
A.  Energetic Events
Begin  Max  End  Rgn   Loc   Xray  Op 245MHz 10cm   Sweep
None
B.  Proton Events:  None.
C.  Geomagnetic Activity Summary:  The geomagnetic field was
unsettled to active, with isolated periods of minor storming.
D.  Stratwarm:  Not Available
E.  Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values)
10 cm 070  SSN 000  Afr/Ap 020/029   X-ray Background A1.4
Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs)
GT 1 MeV 1.8e+07   GT 10 MeV 1.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-13 satellite synchronous orbit W74 degrees)
Daily Electron Fluence
GT 2 MeV 5.40e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-13 satellite synchronous orbit W74 degrees)
3 Hour K-indices:
Boulder 4 4 4 4 5 3 2 4 Planetary 5 3 4 4 5 4 3 4 
F.  Comments:  None

 

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2681
Issue Time: 2017 Oct 13 0831 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2680
Begin Time: 2017 Oct 12 1350 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2808 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

 

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 407
Issue Time: 2017 Oct 13 1446 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2017 Oct 13 1446 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Oct 13 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

 

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 408
Issue Time: 2017 Oct 13 1944 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 407
Valid From: 2017 Oct 13 1446 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2017 Oct 14 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

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